WAIBI DISSECTION (2)

The “Default Syndrome” introduces errors in AVG, SLG, RBI & RP interpretation.

This article refers among others:

• Introduction to manage AVG, SLG & RBI through Waibi System.
• Principles of Waibi's BQI & AVQ can detect the decrease of athletic performances before its noticeable appearance, and significantly improve the selection of athletes from minor leagues to higher-level tournaments.
• TOP TEN of harder and more affordable pitchers of 2015 season, until 21 May.
• The "Default Syndrome" in RBIs and Runs Produced.
• Positive Action vs Neutral Action in RBIs.
• How Scoring Rules in force, increaseng the margin of error in RBI interpretation?
• The third hitter: the most favored player by Circumstantial Statistics and  "Default Syndrome".

Average, Slugging, Runs Batting In & Runs Produced.

These are four of the more traditional parameters used by scouts, managers, statheads and fans, to evaluate the quality of a hitter. These are important to define not only the selectivity of the players, but also their order in the line up. However, these data contain large margins of error from the traditional system, to be used as selection stats.

SLG & AVG

Waibi analyzes these as Direct Parameters, because essentially they depend on the pitcher-batter relationship. The AVG was created (as ERA was) by Henry Chadwick, in the late nineteenth century, inspired by the cricket scoring system.T he Cricket’s formula related scored runs and  outs (like the quantity of innings for baseball ). Chadwick understood that scored runs depended on the team rather than on the individuality of the hitter, so he changed the model to the parameters that were on hitter’s responsability. So he decided to use the hits instead of scored runs, and the  bats instead of outs:

 

Although there’s a simple relationship between the positive actions of a batter, and the totality of possibilities to perform, these very revolutionary approach and analysis by Chadwick, became the foundation stone of offensive statistics. This same concept of extrapolation is applied broadly to create Waibi Sabermeric System.

The SLG ,meanwhile, is more illustrative and influential in developing the line ups, because describes in numbers, the extension of each hit, dividing them into four types: singles, doubles, triples and home runs.

However, none of them, describe numerically a serie of specificities that instead are taken into account when forming a line up or select an player. Let’s see again some of model situations that gave birth to Waibi  analysis: 

When Cuba formed his team for the third World Baseball Classic, once again they put the player Yulieski Gourriel as third in the lineup. This place is always reserved to the best hitter of the team. In reviewing his historical data in the Cuban League, greatly impress beyond the results, the rate  which he has been achieving, threatening several current records. However, an extremely influential important fact, has never been assessed for these analyzes: the low quality and parity of the current Cuban League. There are 16 teams in a country with less than 12 million inhabitants, where the massive presence in baseball has been greatly reduced by economic reasons. Cuban technical procedures which are out of date from several years. Besides, the strike zone is highly arbitrary, the tactical thinking of most of the pitchers is inefficient, as well as their control over the throws, and the variety of their repertoire; not to mention the focus on what happens on the field. Cuban League is highly entertaining, exciting and competitive, but technically very poor. This situation leads hitters to face  mostly low quality pitchers, which facilitates not only to achieve high performance stats, but allows them to be very effective with poor batting techniques, and mask the true quality of many of them.

Cuba has a league, in which also, the fastest pitchers exceptionally reach the 94-95 miles. On average, it is considered "very fast" one who reaches 90-91. With the use of horizontal strike zone, it is relatively easy for a pitcher who reaches this speed, to dominate a team with just two or three types of releases, even if they’re not completly accurate. At the same time, the most talented hitters are more likely to achieve high yields. This is what Waibi Sabermetrics System defines as "Degree of Opportunism". When players with higher degree of opportunism, facing tournaments where the quality of pitching is concentrated, (that means higher), it is logical to see highly affected their yields, depending on their Degree of Opportunism. 

To detect Opportunism, Waibi designed the  AVQ or Qualified Average (System also extended to the rest of the offensive parameters) that doesn’t take into account the hit itself, but its quality. One of the fundamental Opportunism parameters, is the quality of the pitcher on which it was obtained (or not) a Positive Action, a concept derived from the Chess ELO System. Other considerations that appear on the hit appraisal, will be explained on the official site of Waibi Sabermetrics System. 

So, Cuba was in the 52 National Series when they played WBC 2013, so the data used to select the team correspond to the first 45 games that had already been played. At that point, our system at that time in its first phase of development) showed the following:

PLAYER	H	AB	AVG	AVQ	BQI
Yulieski GOURRIEL	50	151	331	287	1.15
Frederich CEPEDA	55	143	385	355	1.08
José ABREU	52	136	382	416	0.92
Yasmani TOMÁS	44	125	352	315	1.12

Where AVQ is the Quality Average, and BQI, is the Batting Quality Index. In unbalanced leagues like the Cuban one (offensive superiority) is considered a hitter has had a good season, when he gets in enough times at bats, an AVG higher than 300. It’s very good with more than 330, and excellent if it exceeds 360. If a batter performed below 290, is considered he’ve had a poor campaign. In MLB, and others concentrated quality leagues, is considered poor a performance below 250. In the half Championship played before World Baseball Classic, 38 hitters in Cuban baseball (16 teams) patched over 300. While, in the MLB only 26 players did it (30 teams). The highest average was 336 for Buster Posey, of the Giants. What is curious (and frightening) is that after the stop for the Classic, in  the second phase of the Cuban League, the number of players with over 300 increased to 40, and even two of them performed over 420.

Returning to the initial phase, after which the team was formed, essentially, our AVQ was calculated only from the overall effectiveness of the opposing pitchers, because Waibi was in its infancy as an analytical system. It draws attention the differences between Gourriel and Cepeda, two players from the same team (Sancti Spiritus),  who’ve alternated in the line up as third and fourth hitters. That means that they faced the same pitchers, a very high percentage of times. However, although both showed a very good batting average, the quality average (AVQ) is significantly different, hovering 150 at-bats. Usually, when batters have a solid performance in a balanced league, the AVQ is slightly below the AVG. Anyway, if there is a big difference, because of the league characteristics, the AVQ should be above the standard references for the league minimum quality (300 for Cuba, 250 for MLB). It’s not so when exist, among others, technical problems  in the hitting mechanics that don’t allow to be effective against better pitchers,  psychological pressure or if they’re going through a sporty decline, although the conventional AVG don’t reflect it.

In the current procedure, Waibi Sabermetrics System analyzes more multiple factors that better define the results discussed. In our next Official Web Site we’ll expose processed data  under the current Waibi System.

Let’s see this table, which expresses a general hits distribution, and the effectiveness of the pitchers whose hitters faced to achieve them. Here, pitchers are divided in two groups that will illustrate us a little bit better the differences. Although in our article "ERA & WHIP" we totally put away  ERA to determine the effectiveness of a pitcher, at the time these data were processed, it was included as essential to calculate the PEC or Pitcher Effectiveness Coefficient. (Link to article It was and WHIP)

It’s important to add that in practice it’s very difficult to find two pitchers with the same PEC. The data in the table are general, only to give a basic idea:

 

		PERFORMANCE OF THE PITCHER WHICH ALLOWS PLAYER'S HITS
PLAYER	H	ABOVE AVERAGE	BETTER PERFORMANC	BELOW AVERAGE	WORSE PERFORMANC	BQI
Y. GOURRIEL	50	15 (30%)	3 (6%)	35 (70%)	10 (20%)	1,152
F. CEPEDA	55	18 (32,7%)	6 (10,9%)	37 (67,3%)	12 (21,8%)	1,084
J. ABREU	52	28 (53,8%)	9 (18%)	24 (46,3%)	4 (7,7%)	0,919
Y. TOMÁS	44	12 (27,3%)	5 (11,4%)	32 (72,7%)	11 (25%)	1,116
S. HERNÁNDEZ	52	21 (40,4%)	10 (19,2%)	31 (59,6%)	5 (9,6%)	0,970

 

We’ll talk about  PEC or Pitcher Effectiveness Coefficient in our official site. At the end of this segment, we published the Top Ten Best and Worst basic coefficients to date,  in the 2015 MLB season.

Let see meanwhile, in our example, some practical details about the general application of Waibi System for selections. Let’s take for example the speed: Less than 2% of Cuban pitchers reach the 95 miles, while in MLB they do it more than the 50%. Occasionally a Cuban League pitcher reaches 97 miles; in 2014 MLB’s season more than the 30% do it regularly. So it is very difficult to make an objective choice to WBC, where the level of quality increases significantly, without using a system that deepens the analysis, mainly in those countries whose leagues are weakers. The same occurs when you want to move a player from a lower to a higher league, like AAA to MLB.

Back to our table, the BQI (Batting Quality Index) expresses the Degree of Opportunism on the player’s yield. The ideal is to stay around 1. Broadly speaking, when the number increases, indicates that the player connects his hits disproportionately against lower-quality pitchers, so they will be less effectives in stricter tournaments. When the number is minor than one, such as Jose Abreu, we are talking about a batter from other galaxy (or he’s at least, in a great peak performance); so, he must be successful in a more complex tournament rather than in the actual one.

A more precise management of these parameters will be explained with more details on the web site of Waibi Sabermetrics System. We’ve showed our first graphics, from the moment when we began developing the system:

Although apparently the four players in the table had an excellent performance in the first 45 games of the series before the Baseball Classic, while processing their hits we found that Gourriel was below "acceptable" values ​​for the Cuban Baseball (only 287), while Abreu was simply stunning (416). These data, still superficial, however showed a greater consistency with the performance of these players in the WBC III, rather than traditional ones used to select them. Is important to underline, that Cuban batters didn’t faced MLB pitchers in the third WBC. Masahiro Tanaka was still a Japanese League pitcher, and he was taking his sporty shape. At least, eleven of opposing pitchers came from lowest quality leagues represented in the Tournament. Six on the Japanese Professional League, and one (Shairon Martis) had had a fleeting time in MLB. The rest had their experiences in AAA, AA or A leagues, mainly in the United States.

Let's see now what happened in the WBC III.

 

	Cuban Lg		III WBC
PLAYER	IBQ	AVQ	IBQ		AVQ		AVG		AB		H	2B	3B	HR	SLG	IMP
Y. GOURRIEL	1,152	287	1,028	272		280		25		7		2	0	1	480	4
J. ABREU	0,919	416	1,761	204		360		25		9		1	0	3	760	9
F. CEPEDA	1,084	355	1,045	453		474		19		9		3	1	1	895	5
A. DESPAIGNE	1.095	315	1,200	324		389		18		7		1	0	3	944	8
Y. TOMÁS	1,116	315	0,906	414		375		16		6		1	0	2	813	5

In the table, we observe the performance of those hitters with bigger offensive responsibility.In all cases there is a correspondence between the previous serie IBQ, and the performance in the Classic, except in the case of Abreu, which will be explained later. We should also take into account that the Classic is a short tournament, with few appearances, so the numbers vary a lot. At this stage, the system was more applicable to long tournaments.

As the results show, despite his good batting performance in the last game against Netherland, Gourriel didn’t fulfill his function within the line up. His AVG / AVQ was close (280/272) because he was in a full bad-offensive moment, so, he failed proportionately to all types of pitchers. In great hitters, that means usually  psychological pressure, poor concentration or a bad sporting moment. On his return to Cuba, on more than 40 games, Gourriel compiled 339 AVG.

However is contrasting the case of Jose Abreu, who hit 360 in the Classic for AVG, while his AVQ indicated only 204. He connected most of his 9 hits to lower pitchers, while failed against the bests. This is indicative of the beginning of his sport decline, that conventional numbers do not reflect. Abreu kept a peak of performance out of the ordinary in the first 45 games in Cuban league before the Classic, and the start of his athletic compensation began shortly before the Classic. In his last 25 at-bats in Cuba before the WBC 2013, he connected 15 hits (600), and his AVQ was 642. Then, in the preparation games, he hit AVG 615 in the first matches in Asia, but in the last ones  against Netherlands, and professional teams from the Japanese League, he achieved only 250.  Unfortunately, we didn’t have access to the “play by play” of these last games, so we couldn’t calculate AVQ and BQI. Anyway, as shown in his yield in the Classic, because of this momentum, he must be placed in a turn with less offensive responsabilities. The player in a higher position in the line up, will face more times starting pitchers, which are almost always the higher quality throwers, principally, in short high quality tournaments. After the Classic, in the second half of the Cuban League, Abreu batted only 305 AVG (39/128). The correspondence with Abreu’s performance the following year, in his first season in the majors, was one of the facts that began to show the concept of Waibi system as potentially functional. We went on to other phases to reduce the margin of error and interpretation.

For his part, Yasmani Tomas rose 15 points in his AVQ in the last games in Cuba before the WBC (125 AB), AVG was 500 at the start of the tour in Asia, and 429 against Dutch and Japanese ones, who was a top quality pitching . In the Classic, although batting 375 (only 16 AB), his average quality was 414, so he must be given more offensive responsibility.

A completely absurd case, was the cuban leadoff hitter, Guillermo Heredia.  Heredia was chosen for his nearly 300 AVG in the Cuban League, for his speed, and for his position in the center field, regardless of the distribution of hits:

		PERFORMANCE OF THE PITCHER WHICH ALLOWS PLAYER'S HITS
PLAYER	H	ABOVE AVERAGE	BETTER PERFORMANC	BELOW AVERAGE	WORSE PERFORMANC	BQI
G. HEREDIA	41	12 (29,3%)	2 (4,9%)	29 (70,7%)	11 (26,8%)	1,227

In the WBC III:

	Cuban Lg		III WBC
PLAYER	IBQ	AVQ	IBQ	AVQ	AVG	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SLG	IMP
G. HEREDIA	1,227	232	1,000	167	167	18	3	0	0	0	167	1

However, in the Cuban pre-selection team, there was the outfielder Styler Hernandez, with AVG 347 and a  striking AVQ 367. His BQI was 0,970.

		PERFORMANCE OF THE PITCHER WHICH ALLOWS PLAYER'S HITS
JUGADOR	H	ABOVE AVERAGE	BETTER PERFORMANC	BELOW AVERAGE	WORSE PERFORMANC	BQI
S. HERNÁNDEZ	52	21 (40,4%)	10 (19,2%)	31(59,6%)	5 (9,6%)	0,970

 

Hernandez wasn’t brought to the team, (which besides needed lefthanded hitters) despite he was the second hitter in betters sports momentum and quality performance, when the team was formed. Abreu was the first.

 These are some of the reasons viewed practically, why Waibi Sabermetrics System replaces the AVG and SLG for AVQ and SLQ respectively for the analysis of selection of players, but with much greater depth processing and analysis after two years of development. Also, the OBP and other statistics with directly inverse relationship (in which attend pitcher and batter ) are processed similarly.This processing performance also helps, among other things, to detect when the player begins to suffer a sports decline, although his AVG remains positive, and to adjust training to compensate it, or prepare with some time other players (physically and psychologically ) to replace him temporarily within the original line up.

Here there are the tables of the best and worst starters in the MLB this season, according to the analysis of the first phase of Waibi System. (Pitcher Effectiveness Coefficients)

RBI & RP

 

There is  another overused statistic for the selection of players. Its basic function is to determine how many runners score, thanks to the offensive contribution of a batter. However, like other important traditional statistics, suffers the "Default Syndrome". This syndrome appears during  annotation, processing and/or interpretating some actions, on which liability is removed from the records of some players, but unconsciously is automatically loaded to another one, increasing the margin error of his interpretation. For example: a mental error of a defender  isn’t considered an error, but by not being registered as such, its result is loaded by default, as  responsibility of the pitcher. Therefore, pitchers from teams with defensive tactical gaps, will be more affected than those who haven’t. As we’ve seen in our analysis of ERA and WHIP, there’re several considerations that convert in negative some positive actions, and vice versa. They’re recorded as positive by "default", but in fact they’re very different actions. In offensive actions, several circumstantial data are also handled, many of which don’t depend only on the batter, but on his team, and also on the opposing defense. Here are some considerations of the RBI and Produced Runs, which are very important "details" that highly influence this calculation, and yet we disregard them.

Positive Action, Neutral Action & Negative Action: To evaluate RBI, it’s important to differentiate when the batter is dominated or when he isn’t. By not evaluating this data, an error of great magnitude in the interpretation of this statistic is introduced again, by the "Default Syndrome". The Positive Action is when the batter does his job, like in the sacrifice fly, hit or squeeze play. The Neutral Action is totally circumstantial. In this situations, the batter is dominated, however, the defense team is unable to prevent that opponent team scores. For example, a grounder to second base with a runner on third base. However, these neutral RBI situations, are charged by default to the hitter, as positive ones. So, most of the ribbies are producted by Neutral Actions, which have no analytical value, because the batter has been dominated. So, for Waibi, the run scored under Positive Actions is pushed by the hitter (RBI), meanwhile, under Neutral Action, is a Circumstancially Scored Run (CSR).   The Negative Action happens when the opponent team doesn’t scores.

Waibi selection system is only interested on positive actions, together with the concept of percentage of RBIs, and the qualitative value of the action (as in the AVQ), all in the same formula. We'll explain it on the website.

Let’s see now Scoring Rules:

10.04ABOUT RUNS BATTED IN

A run batted in is a statistic credited to a batter whose action at bat causes one or more runs to score, as set forth in this Rule 10.04.

A)  The official scorer shall credit the batter with a run batted in for every run that scores:

(1) unaided by an error and as part of a play begun by the batter’s safe hit (including the batter’s home run), sacrifice bunt, sacrifice fly, infield out or fielder’s choice, unless Rule 10.04(b) applies;

(2) by reason of a batter becoming a runner with the bases full (because of a base on balls, an award of first base for being touched by a pitched ball or for interference or obstruction); or

(3) when, before two are out, an error is made on a play on which a runner from third base ordinarily would score.

…

(C) The official scorer’s judgment must determine whether a run batted in shall be credited as a run that scores when a fielder holds the ball or throws to a wrong base. Ordinarily, if the runner keeps going, the official scorer should credit a run batted in; if the runner stops and takes off again when the runner notices the misplay, the official scorer should credit the run as scored on a fielder’s choice.

Let’s see some practical examples:

• A runner on third base with less than two outs. The hitter produces a slow rolling by the shortstop, who put out the batter-runner. The runner on third scores. In this play the batter hasn’t performed any direct action to positively contribute to score. All the responsability is on the ability of the runner, and/or the circumstantial inability of the defense to prevent scoring. However, this Neutral Action is valued as if it was an hit, or another Positive Action,  because the RBI’s calculation ignores when the batter is dominated. This is a Circumstancially Scored Run.
• With slow runners on first and third and one out. The hitter produces a rolling by the infield, and the defense tries a double play through second base, to avoid scoring and to finish the inning. The batter-runner is safe at first base. He counts a RBI even if there were out possibilities in the home plate. It’s technically a type of fielder's choice. However, the batter was dominated in such an undisputable way, that the defense has chosen the possibility of double play, instead of avoiding the score.
• The previous case, but with no outs, is affected differently according to the score. If the difference is large in favor of the defense team, the infield usually takes positions to try a double play, allowing the runner on third base to score. It’s similar when with less than two outs, a runner on third, and great difference on the scoreboard, the defense plays in regular position, to put the hitter-runner out at first, allowing the runner on third base to score. These gifts of the  defense are yet loaded by mistake to the batter, as if he was executing a Positive Action. When the game is tight, the infield is formed in position to avoid the score, so if the player is dominated in a grounder, the runner on third doesn´t score.
• With a runner on third, the hitter produces a fly ball to the outfield, where the two fielders are undecided, so the ball goes to the ground between both. Even though this tactical-mental error, the scorer considers there’s a hit  (which is for the Syndrome of Default charged to the pitcher, without being responsible for it) and an RBI (counts as earned by the thrower) when in fact, the "hit" and the ribbi are just responsibility of the defense.
• Hit By Pitch situations produce runs while they’re not Positive Actions, but a Pitcher’s error which isn’t analyzed as such. So ironically, in HBP situation, a player with poor reflexes have best possibilities to achieve a RBI, than  other with better sporting qualities.
• Base on Balls situations are considered Positive Actions, because the batter have to get it.
• Sacri Fly situations are Hitter’s Positive Actions, which apparently depends also on the runner. The target of the batter is not to produce a fly ball to the outfield, but one large enough to ensure the score. If the runner  is slower, the batter must produce a longer fly. It’s the batter who creates the opportunity to score, although influences to beat the target, the runner and defense capabilities .

Other situations that affect these parameters are:

• Line Up Position: This is one of the most determinant ones. The positions with more offensive responsibility (3th, 4th and 5th) are more likely to own ribbis. The third hitter is the most favored, because besides he is the most complete  batter, he is preceded by three batters in the line up, whose responsibility is to arrive on base, and/or to bring the runner(s) to a  scoring position (9th, 1st and 2nd). Thus, the third batter finds more runners in circulation, and therefore this position is designated for the BEST HITTER. The first three RBI leaders in All-Times MLB stats, were third bats: Hank Aaron (2297), Babe Ruth (2217) and Barry Bonds (1996). Being the line up order a mathematical fact and not a simple appreciation, Waibi gives to the manager, in few numbers, a valuation much more detailed of his players, and some proposals to organize his line up.
• Runs Produced and Line Up Position: It’s the adition of RBI and RS (Runs Scored). Here again the third batter is favored. He’s one of the best AVG and OBP in the line up, and he’s followed by three hitters whose responsibility is to bring the runners to the plate. Thus, the third batter of a standard equipment, will theoretically be more likely to produce ribbies and score, than any other batsman that occupy a different position in the line up for their respective team. For example:

The cuban player Frederich Cepeda, used as a fourth or fifth hitter in the WBC, achieved in international rigor events, better AVG, SLG and RBI than Yulieski Gourriel, the third batter. However, despite the low average, Gourriel showed an acceptable RBI. If Gourriel would make as much as you would expect from him as a third batter, Cepeda’s RBI numbers would fall down significantly, while Gourriel ones would skyrocket, as has happened in the Cuban League. If he would occupy a position of seventh or eighth in the line up, his numbers would fall down much more, even if achieves a better AVG.

The three All Time Runs Produced leaders in MLB, are third hitters too: Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth.

PLAYER	RBI	RBI-Rk	RS	RS-Rk	RP	RP-Rk
Hank Aaron	2297	1	2174	4	4471	1
Babe Ruth	2213	2	2174	4	4387	2
Barry Bonds	1996	3	2227	3	4223	3

• Collective Defense and Neutral Action: The teams with strongest line ups, will have players with more RBI and RS. Both, although strongly influenced by the performance of the batter, depend further on the performance of the team, on its power capabilities, speed on bases and tactical moves, among others. So, the men with more offensive responsabilities in the line up, of those teams with better batters and runners, will have  more possibilities to produce ribbies with Neutral Actions, than other teams with opposite characteristics.
• Pitcher Faced: It’s important to know the quality of the pitcher which allows the RBI’s Positive Action. Also how did it happened. Waibi expresses it mathematically.
• Disposition and quality of the defense: We saw in the examples as this data influences the development of the RBI. While the RBI are valued as an individually parameter, the result is multifactorial and collective. In ERA article we talk about the Situational Carreras, phenomenon that is repited  in the case of RBI. Many unaccounted or not analyzed situations, affect the records, so a greater number of ribbies don’t necessarily indicate the best producer.

Therefore, the amount of RBI and RS, doesn’t qualify a player over another, if they’re not analyzed qualitatively. This is the goal of Waibi System.