WHY IF ASTROS HAD USED WAIBI SABERMETRIC SYSTEM, THEY WOULDN’T HAVE NEVER HIRED GURRIEL FOR 47 MILLIONS?
OPPORTUNISM SYNDROME BY WAIBI (Part One )
In this first part we make references to:
- Performance analysis from WAIBI standpoint
- Yulieski’s performance in the toughest events
- The Opportunism Syndrome
- Astro’s doubts, Waibi’s answers
- Medical Sciences and Waibi analysis method. Player Diagnosis
Our forecast has being
accomplished with Gurriel, as with Abreu. I quote: "We hope to see Yulieski finally shining in a top-level
tournament, even though our forecast is he will not. What
we can say is that, although in Cuba Yulieski broked several records, and
Abreu very few, Yulieski will not achieve to emulate the great
performance of his compatriot in the MLB. And
it's probably he can´t emulate others like Puig, Ramirez or Céspedes.” (published on August 5, 2016, after
Gurriel’s first MINORS League game, clase A)
We continue
to insist on our fundamental concept: Waibi Sabermetrics is a system
of selection stats, not a performance (historical)
stats one. The statistics until today, including sabermetrics (at least
the public ones), belong almost entirely to the second group, but are used as
if they belonged to the first one. To understand the
difference really quickly, we’ll say that if all batters of a league hit 10
homers, 20 doubles and 50 singles in 240 At Bats, all calculations would give
exactly the same results: AVG (.333), SLG (.542),
wOBA (.372), BABIP (.304), and so on. Therefore, the analysis from this limited point
of view, would bring us to choose any of them, to play in a more difficult
tournament, assuming that ALL OF THEM HAVE THE SAME QUALITY. This, however, doesn’t allow us
to know which one has greater chance of success.
Selection Stats,
on the contrary, would give different numbers although all players had exactly
the same performance. Sometimes
even to opposite ends, as happened with our initial model-players Abreu and
Gurriel, and that allowed us to succeed in forecasts. Selection stats are those that can predict the performance in a
higher level tournament, using data from a minor one.
It also focuses on "HOW" and not just on "WHAT". Its margin of error is
visibly smaller than a historical statistic. It’s the "HOW" (the circumstances in
which the result is achieved) that makes the difference.
The current sabermetrics partially behaves as selection stats, just within
the same league. But when is necessary
to move players from one league to another (for example, from AAA to MLB) they’re
practically blind, as we’ve been demonstrating.
We’ve
explained the Default and Average Syndromes in respective articles. As our software is already in the testing phase, let’s abound in other
WAIBI’s corner stone.
THE OPPORTUNISM SYNDROME
AT WAIBI
WORLD... THE
GHOSTBUSTER SAID: “THE OPPORTUNISM SYNDROME IS LIKE A GHOST WHO LIVES WITH
US AT HOME, BUT WE DON’T EVEN SUSPECT HE EXISTS. BUT ACTUALLY THE PROBLEM ISN’T
THERE’S A GHOST, BUT HOW MUCH HE ACCHIEVES TO MANIPULATE OUR LIFE WITHOUT US
KNOWING... I MEAN, MOST OF PLAYERS HAS
SOME DEGREE OF OPPORTUNISM; THE POINT IS HOW MUCH THIS OPPORTUNISM CONTROLS
THEIR PERFORMANCE...”
The chart
shows the performance of several Cuban batters, mostly sluggers, in their last
season in Cuba.
