WAIBI DISSECTION (2)

The “Default Syndrome” introduces errors in AVG, SLG, RBI & RP interpretation.

This article refers among others:

• Introduction to manage AVG, SLG & RBI through Waibi System.
• Principles of Waibi's BQI & AVQ can detect the decrease of athletic performances before its noticeable appearance, and significantly improve the selection of athletes from minor leagues to higher-level tournaments.
• TOP TEN of harder and more affordable pitchers of 2015 season, until 21 May.
• The "Default Syndrome" in RBIs and Runs Produced.
• Positive Action vs Neutral Action in RBIs.
• How Scoring Rules in force, increaseng the margin of error in RBI interpretation?
• The third hitter: the most favored player by Circumstantial Statistics and  "Default Syndrome".

Average, Slugging, Runs Batting In & Runs Produced.

These are four of the more traditional parameters used by scouts, managers, statheads and fans, to evaluate the quality of a hitter. These are important to define not only the selectivity of the players, but also their order in the line up. However, these data contain large margins of error from the traditional system, to be used as selection stats.

SLG & AVG

Waibi analyzes these as Direct Parameters, because essentially they depend on the pitcher-batter relationship. The AVG was created (as ERA was) by Henry Chadwick, in the late nineteenth century, inspired by the cricket scoring system.T he Cricket’s formula related scored runs and  outs (like the quantity of innings for baseball ). Chadwick understood that scored runs depended on the team rather than on the individuality of the hitter, so he changed the model to the parameters that were on hitter’s responsability. So he decided to use the hits instead of scored runs, and the  bats instead of outs:

 

Although there’s a simple relationship between the positive actions of a batter, and the totality of possibilities to perform, these very revolutionary approach and analysis by Chadwick, became the foundation stone of offensive statistics. This same concept of extrapolation is applied broadly to create Waibi Sabermeric System.

The SLG ,meanwhile, is more illustrative and influential in developing the line ups, because describes in numbers, the extension of each hit, dividing them into four types: singles, doubles, triples and home runs.

However, none of them, describe numerically a serie of specificities that instead are taken into account when forming a line up or select an player. Let’s see again some of model situations that gave birth to Waibi  analysis: 

When Cuba formed his team for the third World Baseball Classic, once again they put the player Yulieski Gourriel as third in the lineup. This place is always reserved to the best hitter of the team. In reviewing his historical data in the Cuban League, greatly impress beyond the results, the rate  which he has been achieving, threatening several current records. However, an extremely influential important fact, has never been assessed for these analyzes: the low quality and parity of the current Cuban League. There are 16 teams in a country with less than 12 million inhabitants, where the massive presence in baseball has been greatly reduced by economic reasons. Cuban technical procedures which are out of date from several years. Besides, the strike zone is highly arbitrary, the tactical thinking of most of the pitchers is inefficient, as well as their control over the throws, and the variety of their repertoire; not to mention the focus on what happens on the field. Cuban League is highly entertaining, exciting and competitive, but technically very poor. This situation leads hitters to face  mostly low quality pitchers, which facilitates not only to achieve high performance stats, but allows them to be very effective with poor batting techniques, and mask the true quality of many of them.

WAIBI DISSECTION

ERA & WHIP: The peak of the Iceberg

This article refers among others:

• Introduction to basic principles of WAIBI SABERMETRIC SYSTEM’s formulas.
• Algorithmic and conceptual analysis of ERA. Updating formula step by step to PTRA.
• Many inconsistencies at Rules Scoring greatly distort the veracity of ERA.
• Ghost Runs & Circumstantial Runs, the best allies of ineffective pitchers.
• Algorithmic and conceptual analysis of WHIP. Updating formula step by step to PSIP.
• Semintentional Bases for Ball & Strike Out with Wild Pitch, "ghost" and "circumstantial" data respectively, in the calculation of WHIP.
• ERA & WHIP don’t supplemented. Comparative tables of the top 20 pitchers in MLB 2014 according to ERA, WHIP and PSIP.

One of biggest problems in Baseball stats, is that some traditional parameters (widely used yet) were designed to evaluate something, that its algorithmic structure fails to convey. Even though sometimes these leave out key variables, making the result confused and incomplete, its "practical simple use" and easily understood  by managers, coaches and fans, "legitimize" them as highly reliable. However, its conceptual weakness, VERY OFTEN shows many capable players that are not actually so capable, and others very efficients as if they weren’t.

This is the case, among others, of ERA and WHIP, two very useful  tools for decades, but now archaic to measure the pitchers effectiveness. Formerly there were more differences between  teams quality, and these inaccuracies didn’t take much weight. However, after the internationalization of strategies, tactics, systems and technical skills training of the best competitive level schools (mainly US and Japan), the quality’s contrast between players around the world has decreased greatly. Therefore, it is increasingly important to make a very careful  selection to aspire to victory. 

 ERA

Although many important sabermetric statheads have developed more functional variations of this formula, looking as close as possible to the truth, I consider that  the implementation of  ERA has more value as a general historical data, than as a selection’s tool. Its invention dates back to the late nineteenth century and is attributed to the English writer and historian Henry Chadwick, the founding father of Baseball statistics, who also created, among others, the first scoresheet, the scorebox, and AVG formula. In the times that we mean, there was not a statistical background in this sport, and Chadwick was inspired by the Cricket’s game stats, in which certain events are far away from Baseball complexities.