SCIENCE & BASEBALL

Baseball and Science. Background that have limited the development of full comprehension of Baseball. General details of the new BASEBALL WAIBI SABERMETRICS SYSTEM. 

This article references among others:

• From the first Curveball to Gyroball: Science raises the Baseball roof.
• Is really possible to create The Ultimate Player.
• The Cuban Yuliesky Gourriel: His seasons with the Havana' s Industriales could have been the catalyst for his international awakening. Its  technical deficiencies limit their success against higher quality pitchers. (Basic comparative diagram with other Cuban sluggers).
• Do the curveball "break" or is it just an optical illusion? Reasons to rub a ball.
• Introduction to the basic principles of WAIBI SABERMETRICS SYSTEM.
• The concept of WAIBI's Selectivity Index applied to Football, could shed light in the disputed Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo, to the best player of the decade.

Baseball is the only sport with a whole book of rules, and this is due to the amount of situations and variables that could occur in the ballgame. The baseball practitioner (player, manager, coach) generally ponders his knowledge, basing on thousands of game situations he has lived and resolved throughout his life. Therefore, he knows what is the intended purpose of each play experience, and what is the action to be executed before a small number of possibilities and variables. Usually, if he has brought success before, this invaluable experience makes him see statistics as a secondary weapon to win the match. Hence, despite the development of Sabermetrics, they continue to use it minimally, without a great effort to understand it thoroughly.

For his part, the statistic frequently is a thinker above average, with good academic grades and at least a standard mathematical understanding. However, statshead read the game usually  (never intentionally) as a combination of numbers and formulas to apply to general questions they have learned, often as public. Generally, the statshead doesn’t know what the reasoning of the athlete in each situation is, what he looks for, what goes through his mind. Thus, neither team have a deep knowledge about the other.

 The primary concept of college sports in the United States is the idea of an athlete-thinker, suggesting the conception of a man who can multiply his effectiveness by understanding both worlds. This type of symbiosis has been well tested at its finest by the incredible Shaolin monks, who linked extreme physical training, spiritual growth and philosophy in the same warrior; that’s why it is considered a martial art, not a sport.  Unfortunately, over time, the College Baseball didn’t fully realize their own concept, and have prioritized the pursuit of physical talent to the detriment of intellectual one, because to conquer sport tournaments in the category, is an effective and necessary way to promote and finance universities. Ironically, the same economic look at short term, has avoided that Baseball be a more profitable sport at long term.

Let’s imagine for a second, a player who (as a serious kung fu practitioner) could remain calm and very focused at any time during the game. Also, this player has develops  the ability to “read” his rival gestures and emotions, and hence, predict his intentions and choose precisely just the most effective one, to break them. He will always anticipate the foe.That's the Ultimate Player. A good model to begin to study could be Ichiro Suzuki, probably the most contrasting hitter in MLB history. His great performance isn’t based mainly on his somatotype,  or natural force or other fisic conditions. He is a master of technique, and that’s why he can compete better than others aparently stronger. Like a Samurai warrior with the blade, he feels the bat, just as an extension of his body. But none born with this virtue; the hitter must create his own spiritual link with the bat, exactly like the pitcher with the ball. For an Ultimate Player, we could mix, (for example) David Wright’s athletic conditions, Hank Aaron natural power and Ichiro’s spiritual bat linking. Waibi Sabermetric System on its website talks about some learning processes that although slower, could help to achieve certainly this kind of player, supported by Science and its protagonists: the scientifics. Every great road, begin with the first step: To understand the Art of Being Unbeatable.

To illustrate better the importance of empathy in Scientific-Player relationship in Baseball, I’ll give you a practical example of things from the past that are very naturally today, but they were not understood at the time:

One day at High School while I was playing with other kids, I thougth that although the first curve was due to a physical phenomenon, its invention could have be “accidental”, when some curious pitchers had played throwing balls in different ways, bored with the fast ball monotony. Maybe because it was exactly what I was doing. However, it could also have been designed by someone with knowledge of physic and a passion for baseball, I thought. Years later at the University I clarified my doubts. Now, why is most likely the first option?

Because if the first curve had been created by someone with a basic scientific method, automatically he would have continued neatly to try as many variations he could, adjusting or altering all the conditions involved in the same pitch (grip, pressure, direction and strength of the rotation, etc).

Therefore, almost all current kind of pitches would’ve been designed in a relatively short time, so today, we would’ve a greater level of development and much more variety. What makes science great is that from a simple discovery, others much more complex can be generated. What makes life great is that you can change the world with a simple discovery, without being a man of science.

 

Candy Cummings, Curveball's creator

Years after that elemental analysis, I found that there is a dispute about the paternity of the curve, among Candy Cummings (officially recognized as his inventor) and Fred Goldsmith, both professional players in the US Baseball.

According to Cummings, although the throw started to be used regularly in 1867, playing for the Brooklyn Excelsiors, the idea came to him when he was a child, playing with some shells, so my theory was not entirely wrong. Goldsmith claimed it as his invention, because it was filmed for the first time in 1870. To invent, discover or investigate, not necessarily mean being the most qualified to carry it out, but Cummings was so successful that changed baseball also on a structural level. The problem was he could use the curve only if the catcher could control the ball. So, Nat Hicks, Brooklyn Star’s catcher, began to settle in the position that is known today, and because of that position, catcher protectors have been designed. 

Analizing the recent creation of Gyroball, is a throw as disconcerting  today as the first curve was at the beginning. For now, it has an higher complexity of implementation, since the biomechanics thrower movements have been perfected to avoid injuries. When science will find a way to make the arms stay healthy, this will be a deadly weapon in the confrontation pitcher-batter, and therefore the quality of the matches will be better. The Gyroball is the first pure breaking ball, that reaches the same speed than an average fastball, and maybe could overcome it with an appropriate technique. Its design would’ve been impossible without a scientifical way, because scientists and  players  have different procedures for analysing. Generally speaking, the player would try some changes in the ball handling do find some movement in the ball trayectory. The scientific often begins with a Theoretical Projection and then studies his Practical Application. For example: ¿What movement they want the ball do, and witch operation should the pitcher execute, to reach it as faster as possible, without losing the throw control or/and wear down his body?

I would like to clear up that I have used Gyroball as a general hypothetical model, I’m not saying how it was discovered. However, the technique is based on the rotation of the body and arm as a whole, as the player pushes forward, to accelerate the ball. It is a very striking conceptual similarity with that harmonic Japanese hitter swing, which demonstrates that even being too thin you can connect big hits.

Daisuke Matsuzaka & Gyroball: a futurist throw



About Gyroball and batting techniques of Japanese school, we’ll deepen soon, in the web site of Waibi Sabermetric System, with some analytical videos.

But, sometimes, science adds or analize perfunctorily incomplete data which distort the phenomenon comprehension, so the results interpretation as well. Researchers Arthur Shapiro, (American University), and Zhong-Lin Lu (University of Southern California), concluded that the curves don’t break, but are stabilized, and is the human eye a succumbing victim of an optical illusion when the ball approaches. It is possible that these prestigious academics are right, about this eye delusion. There is a “blind zone” in the retina, which correspond to the optic nerve orifice. When the image we follow, passes through this area, it dissapears in one eye (about 15 degrees from center axis), principally because the hitters mostly stand up sideways to ball trajectory. That affects the eye nearest to the pitcher (the left eye in right hitters, for example). At the same time, the other eye vision is affected partially because of the nose. So, obviously, there is a distortion in the perception (and could be others reasons as well), but, does this mean curveball doesn’t break? It would be a radical conclusion, so irresponsible, as to deny the existence of God, just because scientists haven’t discover yet how to prove it.

I think the accuracy of their analysis is directly affected by a possible lack of some game key factors. Often some scientists have the misperception that baseball is just knowing about strikes, balls, and math strategies. Therefore, they have left out of their analysis important variables that alter the player performance, because those are not "countable" in a baseball game. I mean: who has played baseball knows, without being a professional sportsman, the incidence of the wind on ball, the impact of grip pressure, the hand area in contact with the ball, the ball surface conditions, the humidity, the seams movement, among others. This is what makes each throw unique and each pitcher too.

When the pitcher, for example, rubs the ball in his hands, or against the leather glove, or even on his clothes, he’s looking for abrade the surface to cause a greater curvature and a range of motion. The player probably doesn’t know a lot about physics, but he has learnt in years of experience, that a worn out ball varies more and moves slower than one with a smooth surface. In Waibi website, using funny educational videos that you can replicate at home with friends and family, we’ll talk about “emery ball” (improves pitcher handle) and the “slobber” (it forces batters to hit the ball in the center); both declared officially illegals.

If we combine these approaches, we understand that when the wind resistance grows up,   the ball slows over its speed and rotational force. I mean, it “stop at the air”!! It increases initial traction ,because of the less polished contact area and seams, producing an higher rotational speed release.

Like many spiritual philosophies, what strengthens you makes you weak. So,  these same causes which hinder its constant movement, are further increasing the differences between the start and end of throw. This is a projectiles physics equation, where velocity, centripetal acceleration, frictional forces, among others, have a constant behavior from  box to home plate, therefore the angles and velocities of departure and arrival, will differ depending on the incidence of these factors. One of the goals of this site is to make baseball understandable to everyone. So, I’ll explain the action of some external forces with an easiest no baseball example:

When the air rifle you’ve rented in Town Carnival gets stuck, and you make a fool in front of the girl you want to impress, you open it desperately and after blowing through the hole of the canyon, you look through it. If it is empty, you will see parallel striations that follow the barrel direction "moving away" in spiral, usually three or four. 

Fire gun splines

  When a bullet passes through the barrel splines it rotates over its own axis, like a Rugby ball thrown by the quarterback, to give stability to the movement. This achieves to reduce the incidence of external forces (rain, wind, and the look of your future mother in law) that impede or divert its way until the target. The girl’s father arrives with a beer in his hand (jajaja, like every  nice traditional  family) and asks you to interchange yours rifles. Then you wrongly think: -Wow, he likes me!-. but you will know very soon that you lost the battle… He has given you a rifle without splines!! ... Thus, is very probable that the bullets will never hit the bull’s-eye because it is virtually impossible to "give them direction", I mean, bullets will be literally “Gone with the Wind”. Do you remember that strange knuckleball movement, or the Volley Ball floating serve? These forces act every moment on each throw with different degrees. For example, we talked Gyroball has a movement "knurled" while the knuckleball don’t, but both are affected for the same external resistances forces.

Returning to the question about whether curve "breaks", another important detail is that the 12-6 curve model (over the shoulder) initially turns against gravity, and after reaching the highest point, turns this on his favor, which also affects the speed of rotation and displacement . Its axis of rotation is perpendicular to gravity. However, the lateral curve model (3-9 in right pitchers) revolves an axis parallel to gravity, therefore, has a rather different behavior from 12-6 curve. I think it’s possible that the “curve doesn’t break” theory, in my opinion, only with ideal laboratory models, in which gravity would be the only acting resistance force, and the ball doesn’t rotate. In the real world, it is easier to understand these seeing GENERAL behaviors in sports like table tennis (long distance attacks) and Volleyball (Jump Serve & Back Attack, from 1, 5 and 6 positions). In these, the situations of all incident forces are more noticeable due to the greater differences between ball weight and volume, as well as its manufacturing materials. Recall the ball Jabulani, used at the World Cup Soccer South Africa 2010, criticized for its unpredictable behavior.

Jabulani Soccer Ball, South Africa, 2010

Returning to our player-sabermetric comparison, we see that both parties move unconsciously ignoring the wisdom of the other, greatly reducing the chances of success in each game action. If the player has got both knowledge, he would know exactly what questions to do, and prepare his tactics and training in terms of achieving the maximum performance. However, in the current situation, usually, each party believe they have a closer vision of the truth.

After Sabermetrics arrival, Baseball level grew up significantly, but the divorce between the two fields, has slowed down for a long time the development of this exciting sport (or culture) to unthinkable levels. Probably that will remain like this for a long time, until everybody will understand that the role of Sabermetrics in Baseball, is EXACTLY the same of  Intelligence in a War, AND not a simple count of numbers to choose the MVP, the All Star Season Player or quality cheaper players for the franchise. The one that be more capable in its proper use, will be more likely to win.    

Waibi Sabermetric System, conceptually uses both approaches, and raises the interpretative possibilities of statistics and simultaneously reduces the difficulty of understanding by the manager, coach or player. Also, Waibi evaluates players to differentiate the Best Performance, Highest Quality and Eligibility. In statistical systems before Sabermetrics, these three were taken wrongly as if those were the same. After the arrival of Bill James, the concept of selectivity was implemented, but predicating that the best performance was synonymous of  best quality, and is where Waibi System focuses on, and achieves to demonstrate that the apparent performance is not otherwise but  an illusion.

Some basic principles of Waibi Sabermetric System.

One of the questions that originated Waibi, for example, was why in international tournaments before 2013, the poor performance of third bat in Cuban teams Yulieski Gourriel, didn’t correspond to his numbers in Cuban National Series, according to official statistics from the Cuban Federation. While, José Abreu and Frederich Cepeda, with apparently "minor" numbers, showed better performances during international events.

The individual psychological pressure was always claimed by the specialists, but Waibi System demonstrates that this isn’t the fundamental cause, disqualifying the repeated use over years of Gourriel as third batter in Cuban teams in specific high level tournaments, as the first three World Classics. It is important to remember that Cuba always provided players trained specifically for competition, for those competitions. That means, that cuban players were physically at their “maximum” capacity for those competitions.



Gourriel's Homerun: he could break some records if  eliminate his technical deficiencies



The enormous quality of Gourriel as an integral player, arguably the most complete by  traditional stats, was proved shortly before his contract at the NPB, where he played excellently in the 2014’ season for the Yokohama DeNA Bay Stars , and left behind  finally a trail of international failures. This breakthrough was observed “coincidentally”, after his first season with the Havana’s Industriales (New York Yankees counterparty of the Cuban League). This team plays the greates hustling games all the season, as confirmed a lot  Cuban players from different teams and periods, and therefore should have evolved in Gourriel a psicological control during high voltage games. Any player under these conditions, should be more accustomed than another that doesn’t. More tensioned games trigger a faster ripening.

Notwithstanding this, the contrast with the highly positive results of José Abreu and Cepeda, lies in technical issues, due to the difference in quality of their batting systems, a study I’ll widely explain, with analytical videos on Waibi Sabermetric System website, where I’ll see some concepts of the most effective schools, and how this has an higher impact on statistics, reflecting these stats over the Math Table of Waibi. Batters with increased technical deficiencies, will decrease their chances of success, to the extent that depends from the pitcher faced quality, especially in short tournaments, where participants don’t play together regularly, and there is much more tension because every victory is extremely important.

Homeruns by Abreu & Cepeda: The batting technique, the best weapon against quality pitching

Considering that a player effectiveness depends not only on himself but also on what the opponents allow him, Waibi Sabermetric System may, IN ONE NUMBER, determine in which scenario they are individually more effective, using all variables as possible (including the importance of the game, rivalry, coefficients of effectiveness of opposites, and many more) all adjusted to their Fitness Sporting Momentum and of their rivals. This is the general principle of Waibi Selectivity Index. 

The concept of Waibi Selectivity Index applied to Football, could solve, with the necessary data, the dispute between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, in which fans desagree completly. The truth will not appear, if we subordinate an objetive analysis, to the answer we would like. But that is exactly what the fans generally do, based on the confusing QUANTITATIVE LEADERSHIP. These kinds of data, tend to be very imprecise in team sports, where the complexity of the scenario can drastically change at any time, favouring or affecting quantitatively a record, depending on the degree of difficulties to achieve success.



Waibi concept applied to football could define clearly on the best of the decade

I’ll explain with an “sabermetric” example outside the sport, using the concept of Wabi System: Three high level snipers of a squad, shoot twenty bullets to beat many targets as possible, with a perimeter defense of 16 men must keep intact. Therefore, they must neutralize the snipers without using guns. The snipers only can shoot to targets.

Finally, the shooter A, beats 10, the B beats 15, and C beats 12. A priori it seems that C is "the best". As l get into the specificity of the chances of success, that is, the level of beaten targets difficulty, we know that the enemy intelligence did an assessment, and decided to arm a personalized perimeter’s defense, according to the potential danger they consider   each one represent INDIVIDUALLY. So, they used: ONE man to neutralize the shooter A, FIVE to neutralize B and TEN for C (in areas exactly alike).

Automatically, the shooters were forced to adjust their INDIVIDUAL STRATEGIES to reach success. The shooter A used an high precision rifle, because after neutralizing his lonely rival, had all the time and space available to correct his shots, making 10 of 20. The shooter B, chose a light rifle, because in a similar area, he should change his position several times to avoid being neutralized. If detected by an enemy, had the time to put him out of action, before another of the remaining four arrive to help him. However, the distance between the defenders gave the minimum time to focus on target and breathe shortly, before shooting. Thus, he achieved 15 of 20.

Instead the sniper C, must be positioned several feet out of the perimeter to start, because he had the double of opponents. So, he used a rifle more powerful, BUT VERY HEAVY (used by A). His displacement was limited by the weight of the rifle, and by the number of defenders (TEN). The success was risky, because at the distance, he had to take into account complex variables that have less value, at short and medium distances: the speed of the wind, the peephole setoff, and others. So he only had time to repeat just one shot, while the enemies reached out for him.

At any case, running with heavy equipment was impossible, so he had to leave the rifle and replace it with another lighter weapon. For the amount of enemies, he never had a chance to stop, to focus, to breathe and to make his shot, so a lightweight rifle (used by B) wasn’t an eligible weapon. Then, he completed his material with a handgun (which effective range is on short distances), 17 bullets, and an assault knife.

He shot always while moving, instinctively offsetting the angle of the shots, because the weapons available have less effective range than needed. In addition, he must neutralize two or more opponents every time he made contact before trying. Already without shells, he had to get closer to the target, and while he was neutralized, he beated another target. Here, he launched the knife with his weakest arm, while opponents were neutralizing the strongest one. Having nearly half of the chance of success than the shooter C, he scored only 12 on 20.

Here comes the interesting thing: If we could interchange their scenarios, based on the difference in difficulty, we could almost guarantee that the shooter B will accomplish much more than 15 targets in the scenario of shooter B, and possibly the 100% in terms of A, because this is easier to beat according to THEIR ABILITIES, while to the shooter A this will  happen contrariwise.

Therefore, if you were an Army General (or Baseball Manager) and you need to choose your BEST SOLDIER to successfully accomplish the most important mission; which one  would you choose, A, B or C? If you're a blind fanatic, or you’re friend of one of them, or some of them is also your favorite and you want him to take credit for the mission, and others, you’ll choose anyone according to your NON-PROFESSIONAL INTEREST, without thinking whether your perception is correct or not. If you're not that kind of judge, and what you want is to GUARANTEE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE the success of the mission, you will choose, according to the statistic, the  MOST QUALIFIED one for the success in THE MOST DIFFICULT SCENARIO: the sniper B.

There are some gaps that fill (yet not entirely) the Waibi Sabermetric System, which plans are to extend his study to sports like soccer and volleyball with the concept of Waibi system.